4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 55

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP