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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(14:30) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model