Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Denver Broncos 3

(14:05) 15-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model