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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.01 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 36, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP