Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 62

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to SF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.75 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -2.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model