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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 40

Denver Broncos 14 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model