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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 22

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP