Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(9:38) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model