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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP