Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 63

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(12:43) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to SF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model