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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 34

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model