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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 89

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model