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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.96 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model