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New England Patriots

2-2 HC Mike Vrabel
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Buffalo Bills

3-1 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NE
33.0%
BUF
67.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.160 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 21 14–28
–
BUF 24 17–31
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

NE

Christian Barmore DT Out Shoulder
Brenden Schooler S Out Back
Christian Gonzalez CB Out Shoulder
Morgan Moses T Questionable Foot
Dre'Mont Jones LB Questionable Shoulder
Reggie Gilliam FB Questionable Knee
Christian Elliss LB Questionable Chest
Craig Woodson S Questionable Shoulder
Channing Canada CB Questionable Hamstring
Eli Raridon TE Questionable Thigh

BUF

T.J. Sanders DE Doubtful Illness
Christian Benford CB Questionable Toe
Ray Davis RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 29
–
BUF 26

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:06 TD NE (7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau]. NE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 14:21 TD BUF (14:21) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – BUF 6
  • Q2 05:41 TD NE (5:41) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-44-R.Gilliam has returned to the game. NE 13 – BUF 7
  • Q2 01:03 TD BUF (1:03) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – BUF 13
  • Q2 00:05 FG BUF (:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. NE 14 – BUF 17
  • Q3 08:18 TD NE (8:18) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – BUF 17
  • Q4 11:11 FG BUF (11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. NE 21 – BUF 20
  • Q4 04:33 TD BUF (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – BUF 26
  • Q4 01:55 TD NE (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – BUF 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 80%

    (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 52%

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 94%

    (10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →