← Home
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park US
❓ Unknown
Spread 3.0
O/U 49.5
Win Probability
Unknown
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- BUF defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.140 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.119 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
NE
23
–
BUF
26
Projected margin: BUF by 3
Projected total: 49
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.