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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 56

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model