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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.64 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model