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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 55

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP