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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 65

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model