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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP