4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 58

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP