Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model