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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.90 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model