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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 17

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model