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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model