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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 29

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model