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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model