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Buffalo Bills

5-1 HC Sean McDermott
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Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 HC Klint Kubliak
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 16:25 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

BUF
70.8%
LV
29.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to BUF: Kirk Cousins (LV) +0.111 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.188 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 30 23–37
–
LV 19 12–26
Projected margin: BUF by 11 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

BUF

DJ Moore WR Questionable Shoulder
Ed Oliver DE Questionable Knee
Josh Palmer WR Questionable Shoulder
Dee Alford CB Questionable Ankle
T.J. Sanders DE Questionable Shoulder

LV

Tonka Hemingway DT Out Concussion
Carter Runyon TE Out Foot
Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR Out Hamstring
Trey Zuhn III C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 33
–
LV 30

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:16 FG BUF (10:16) 16-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 3 – LV 0
  • Q1 04:32 TD LV (4:32) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – LV 6
  • Q2 14:48 FG BUF (14:48) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 6 – LV 7
  • Q2 07:17 TD BUF (7:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – LV 7
  • Q2 02:18 FG LV (2:18) 14-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. BUF 13 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG LV (:04) 14-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. BUF 13 – LV 13
  • Q3 09:50 FG BUF (9:50) 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 16 – LV 13
  • Q3 06:30 TD BUF (6:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. BUF 22 – LV 13
  • Q4 13:35 FG LV (13:35) 14-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. BUF 23 – LV 16
  • Q4 08:13 TD LV (8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – LV 22
  • Q4 04:49 TD BUF (4:49) 63-A.Corbett reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 29 – LV 23
  • Q4 02:00 FG BUF (2:00) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 33 – LV 23
  • Q4 01:39 TD LV (1:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 33 – LV 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%

    (10:16) 16-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (14:48) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:15) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 15 for 4 yards (25-D.Luter; 20-I.Pola-Mao).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (2:18) 14-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:48) 39-T.Doman punts 44 yards to LV 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 35 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (9:50) 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 99%

    (13:35) 14-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:03) 39-T.Doman punts 51 yards to LV 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (2:00) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →