Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.81 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model