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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 26

Buffalo Bills 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 16-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.92 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model