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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.38 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model