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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 14-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 4, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP