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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:48) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.93 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model