DAL @ GB — 4th & Data

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Green Bay Packers

4-2 HC Matt LaFleur

Sunday 2026-10-18 · 20:20 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

DAL

35.5%

64.5%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
GB defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
DAL on 3 more days rest than GB
QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.196 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.200 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 26 19–33

–

GB 27 20–34

Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 53

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

DAL

Cobie Durant CB Out Hamstring

Drew Shelton T Out Hamstring

DeMarvion Overshown LB Questionable Hamstring

Ameer Speed CB Questionable Knee

Joey Porter Jr. CB Questionable Ankle

LT Overton DT Questionable Foot

GB

Javon Hargrave DT Out Achilles

Benjamin St-Juste CB Out Hamstring

Jonathan Ford DT Out Calf

Skyy Moore WR Out Ankle

Jordon Riley DE Doubtful Achilles

Aaron Banks G Questionable Knee

Jacob Monk C Questionable Quadricep

Savion Williams WR Questionable Ankle

Anthony Campbell DT Questionable Ankle

Brandon Cisse CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 13

–

GB 23

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:46 TD GB (4:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – GB 6
Q2 06:01 FG GB (6:01) 28-T.Smack 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DAL 0 – GB 10
Q2 00:25 TD GB (:25) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – GB 16
Q3 09:24 TD DAL (9:24) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – GB 17
Q3 05:06 FG GB (5:06) 28-T.Smack 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DAL 7 – GB 20
Q4 10:10 FG GB (10:10) 28-T.Smack 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DAL 7 – GB 23
Q4 00:52 TD DAL (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – GB 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

(11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:46) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to GB 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-C.Owen pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (50-S.James).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 7

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

(6:01) 28-T.Smack 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(14:01) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DAL 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo ran ob at GB 46 for 16 yards (59-T.Hopper).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 65%

(12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to GB 21 for 17 yards (2-B.Cisse).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 50%

(6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 30 for 14 yards (13-C.Downs).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

(5:06) 28-T.Smack 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(3:35) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 96

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(1:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo to DAL 45 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper; 87-J.Sturdivant). PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 41.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 50

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 34%

(13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 11

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

(10:10) 28-T.Smack 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 23

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

(6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 12 for 11 yards (24-C.Valentine; 7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 12.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 14

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(3:11) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).
See the full breakdown →

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