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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP