4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 28-T.Smack 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.62 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model