Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(14:01) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DAL 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo ran ob at GB 46 for 16 yards (59-T.Hopper).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model