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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.75 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model