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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 11 at the 14
Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 23
What Actually Happened
(5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
The Three Options
GO
+1.61 EP
What Happened
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.96 EP
- 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP
KICK
+1.78 EP
Model's Pick
- 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
