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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to GB 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-C.Owen pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (50-S.James).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model