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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 28-T.Smack 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP