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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model