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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 12 for 11 yards (24-C.Valentine; 7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 12.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model