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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 38

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to GB 21 for 17 yards (2-B.Cisse).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model