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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 30 for 14 yards (13-C.Downs).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.99 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model