Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 96

Green Bay Packers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo to DAL 45 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper; 87-J.Sturdivant). PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.46 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 96, worth -5.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model