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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 23 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model