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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 20 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 28-T.Smack 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP