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Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 HC Jim Harbaugh
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 16:25 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LAC
28.6%
KC
71.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.123 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.138 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • KC on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • LAC defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21 14–28
–
KC 23 16–30
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

LAC

Donte Jackson CB Out Hamstring
Derwin James S Out Hamstring
Kayode Awosika G Out Fibula
Joe Alt T Out Neck
Tre Harris WR Out Hamstring
Rodney Shelley CB Doubtful Hamstring
Bud Dupree DE Questionable Neck
Dalvin Tomlinson DT Questionable Hamstring
Daiyan Henley LB Questionable Knee
Jamaree Caldwell DT Questionable Knee
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR Questionable Hamstring
Brenen Thompson WR Questionable Quadricep

KC

Rashee Rice WR Out Hamstring
Josh Simmons T Out Back
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 6
–
KC 22

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 FG KC (11:25) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 0 – KC 3
  • Q1 07:29 TD KC (7:29) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – KC 9
  • Q1 01:38 FG LAC (1:38) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – KC 9
  • Q2 01:53 TD KC (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – KC 15
  • Q2 00:07 FG KC (:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 3 – KC 19
  • Q3 10:48 FG LAC (10:48) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – KC 19
  • Q4 03:56 FG KC (3:56) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 6 – KC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 86%

    (11:25) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 6 yards (53-D.Phillips; 47-J.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:38) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 38%

    (14:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (5:39) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:36) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 30 for 7 yards (32-K.Williamson; 43-T.Dye).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 97%

    (10:48) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (6:34) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 1 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe; 58-M.Wax).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 21 yards (83-N.Gray; 41-J.Winchester).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 51%

    (13:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 38 for 5 yards (20-N.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 71%

    (11:51) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (3:56) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Wease (51-R.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →