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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 1 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe; 58-M.Wax).

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model