Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

(2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model